HR: 11:35h
AN: GC22A-05    [Abstracts]
TI: Climate-Induced Change in South Central Siberia: Predictions Versus Current Observations
AU: * Soja, A J
EM: amber.j.soja@nasa.gov
AF: National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA Langley Research Center 21 Langley Boulevard Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, United States
AU: Tchebakova, N M
EM: ncheby@forest.akadem.ru
AF: Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
AU: Parfenova, E I
EM: yeti@forest.akadem.ru
AF: Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
AU: Shishikin, A
EM: institute@forest.akadem.ru
AF: Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
AU: Kanzai, V
AF: State Biosphere Reserve, Uvs-Nuur Hollow Kalinin Str. 19 Republic of Tyva, Kyzyl, 667000, Russian Federation
AU: Westberg, D J
EM: david.j.westberg@nasa.gov
AF: SCIENCE SYSTEMS & APPLICATIONS INC., NASA Langley Research Center 21 Langley Boulevard Mail Stop 927, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, United States
AU: Sukhinin, A I
EM: boss@ksc.krasn.ru
AF: Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
AU: Ivanova, G A
EM: green@escapenet.ru
AF: Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
AU: Stackhouse, P W
EM: paul.w.stackhouse@nasa.gov
AF: NASA Langley Research Center, 21 Langley Boulevard Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, United States
AB: Atmosphere Ocean General Circulations Models (AOGCM) are in agreement that Siberia is expected to experience warming in excess of 40% above global mean temperature increases by 2100. Moreover, it is predicted temperature increases will be evident in both the summer and winter. In association with changes in climate, the extent of the fire season, the amount of area burned and fire severity are predicted to increase. Fire regime increases are predicted to be the catalyst for ecosystem change, which will force ecosystems to move more rapidly towards equilibrium with the climate. Bioclimatic model results predict expansive changes in ecosystems, from a landscape dominated by taiga to a landscape dominated by steppe and forest-steppe. The focus of this investigation is on south, central Siberia in the Sayan Mountains and the Tyvan Republic, where one would expect to find the initial signs of climate change. The Sayan mountain range offers relatively abrupt change in ecosystems that are often defined by altitude, temperature and precipitation. Tyva is located at a vulnerable southern border, south of the Sayan, and contains 9 Biospheric Reserves, each representing distinct ecosystems. Additionally, Tyva is the home of several relic Pinus sylvestris forests. In these regions, January temperature increases have exceeded those predicted by the Hadley Centre scenario for 2090, and July temperatures are well below predictions. Predicted increases in rainfall are not apparent, and generally, precipitation change has been negative. The growing season length has already increased by about 6 to 12 days. Consequently, several of the relic pine forests have burned (some repeatedly), and natural regeneration is not visible at several sites, even one that had been re-planted on several occasions. In the last decades, these regions have experienced changes in climate and, potentially, initial signs of ecosystem change. In this report, we present a concentrated view of one region that is expected to change and may be currently showing indications of climate-induced change.
DE: 0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics (4815)
DE: 0466 Modeling
DE: 1632 Land cover change
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 1640 Remote sensing (1855)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting