HR: 16:00h
AN: PA24A-01 [Abstracts]
TI: Weather Observation Systems and Efficiency of Fighting Forest Fires
AU: * Khabarov, N
EM: khabarov@iiasa.ac.at
AF: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
AU: Moltchanova, E
EM: elena.moltchanova@ktl.f
AF: National Public Health Institute, Mannerheimintie 166, Helsinki, 00300, Finland
AU: Obersteiner, M
EM: oberstei@iiasa.ac.at
AF: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
AB:
Weather observation is an essential component of modern forest fire management systems. Satellite and in-situ
based weather observation systems might help to reduce forest loss, human casualties and destruction of
economic capital. In this paper, we develop and apply a methodology to assess the benefits of various weather
observation systems on reductions of burned area due to early fire detection. In particular, we consider a model
where the air patrolling schedule is determined by a fire hazard index. The index is computed from gridded daily
weather data for the area covering parts Spain and Portugal. We conduct a number of simulation experiments.
First, the resolution of the original data set is artificially reduced. The reduction of the total forest burned area
associated with air patrolling based on a finer weather grid indicates the benefit of using higher spatially resolved
weather observations. Second, we consider a stochastic model to simulate forest fires and explore the sensitivity
of the model with respect to the quality of input data. The analysis of combination of satellite and ground
monitoring reveals potential cost saving due to a "system of systems effect" and substantial reduction in burned
area. Finally, we estimate the marginal improvement schedule for loss of life and economic capital as a function
of the improved fire observing system.
DE: 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0426, 1610)
DE: 0480 Remote sensing
DE: 0545 Modeling (4255)
DE: 0560 Numerical solutions (4255)
DE: 6300 POLICY SCIENCES (7964)
SC: Public Affairs [PA]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting