HR: 11:20h
AN: GC22A-05    [Abstracts]
TI: Generating future Climate Scenarios for the Caribbean using PRECIS
AU: * Campbell, J D
EM: jayaka.campbell@uwimona.edu.jm
AF: Climate Studies Group Mona, CSGM, Department Of Physics, University Of The West Indies, Mona Campus, St. Andrew, Jamaica
AU: Taylor, M A
EM: michael.taylor@uwimona.edu.jm
AF: Climate Studies Group Mona, CSGM, Department Of Physics, University Of The West Indies, Mona Campus, St. Andrew, Jamaica
AU: Stephenson, T S
EM: tannysyd@yahoo.com
AF: Climate Studies Group Mona, CSGM, Department Of Physics, University Of The West Indies, Mona Campus, St. Andrew, Jamaica
AU: Whyte, F S
EM: felicia.whyte@uwimona.edu.jm
AF: Climate Studies Group Mona, CSGM, Department Of Physics, University Of The West Indies, Mona Campus, St. Andrew, Jamaica
AB: This study examines future climate scenarios for the Caribbean, generated using the PRECIS regional modelling system. PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) is a high resolution regional climate modelling system which has been run over a Caribbean domain at 50 km resolution. The study examines how well the model simulates the current climate, and projects climate change in the region for a 30 year time slice centred on the 2080's. Future climates are generated by forcing PRECIS at its boundaries with output from the Hadley Centres HADAM3P climate model run under the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A2 (high emissions) and B2 (medium-low emissions) scenarios. The model reasonably represents the current climatology of the region, capturing the bimodal rainfall season as well as annual and seasonal temperature patterns. An improvement in detail, especially those arriving from changes in topography, relief or surface type is one of the model's advantages i.e. when compared to similar studies done with General Circulation Models. The model projects a warmer and dryer Caribbean by the 2080's in the annual mean. The dryness is greatest in the central Caribbean basin, and temperatures are projected to be between 1 and 5 degrees warmer dependent on scenario and location. The general drying trend projected for the Caribbean basin, sees precipitation decreasing by at least 20 to 25% both in the seasonal and annual views, irrespective of the scenario. The study was the result of a collaborative effort involving three countries: Jamaica, Barbados, and Cuba.
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 1872 Time series analysis (3270, 4277, 4475)
DE: 3252 Spatial analysis (0500)
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly