HR: 0800h
AN: GP41D-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Evaluation of earthquake alarms based on detecting EM signals during the period of major earthquakes in Mexico from 2001-2006
AU: * Ouzounov, D
EM: ouzounov@core2.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: NASA GSFC/SSAI/GMU, MS 698 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 201771, United States
AU: Pulinets, S
EM: pulse@geofisica.unam.mx
AF: Institute of Geophysics, UNAM,Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico city, MD 04510, Mexico
AU: Cervone, G
EM: gcervone@gmu.edu
AF: George Mason University/CEOSR, 4400 University Dr, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States
AU: Kafatos, M
EM: mkafatos@gmu.edu
AF: George Mason University/CEOSR, 4400 University Dr, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States
AU: Parrot, M
EM: mparrot@cnrs-orleans.fr
AF: LPCE/CNRS, 3A, Avenue de la Recherche , Orléans cedex, 45071, France
AU: Taylor, P
EM: Patriick.Taylor@nasa.gov
AF: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, MS 698, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
AB: We present results from our collection and evaluating of early warning signals from the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere preceding the major earthquake events in Mexico. This study examines possible connections between anomalous changes of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters observed around the time of several strong earthquakes in Mexico (M7.8 Colima of January 21, 2003, M5.8 Oaxaca of July 18, 2004 and others). Our approach requires integral measurements of several physical and environmental parameters (electric and electromagnetic fields, air conductivity, ionospheric parameters, temperature and humidity of the boundary layer, seismicity) that have been found to be associated with impending earthquakes. Our ionospheric and atmospheric observational methodology is based of joint analysis of: (1) Delta Total Electron Contents (TEC) collected from ground based GPS; (2) satellite long-wavelength radiation data form NOAA; (3) surface latent heat flux (SLHF); (4) DEMETER satellite VLF electrical field and; (5) thermal infrared (TIR) data from (NASA EOS/MODIS) together with ground air temperature and humidity measurements. This analysis revealed several types of atmosphere /ionosphere anomalies one week prior to the earthquakes that validated the alarm signals. Our latest experience from several post-earthquake independent analyses recognized the problem of proper evaluation of such alarm techniques for upcoming major (M>5.5, depth<50km) earthquakes in a comprehensive and systematic fashion based of the latest major seismicity from. We found evidence of systematic appearance atmosphere-ionosphere anomalies preceding most of the major events. Night time TIR signals, approximately 1-2 week before the earthquakes corresponded with an increase of SLHF and air temperature, followed by significant variations in the ionospheric TEC measurements above the epicenters. These findings are consistent with the theoretical model of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling between the crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the statistical methodology used for reviewing the alarms and highlight the practical usefulness of these techniques.
DE: 0468 Natural hazards
DE: 0480 Remote sensing
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 8100 TECTONOPHYSICS
SC: Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism [GP]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly