HR: 14:15h
AN: U33B-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region
AU: * Magrin, G O
EM: gmagrin@cnia.inta.gov.ar
AF: INTA, Las Cabanas y Los Reseros, Castelar, 1712, Argentina
AU: Gay Garcia, C
EM: cgay@servidor.unam.mx
AF: UNAM, Circuito Exterior 04510, Mexico, DF 04510, Mexico
AU: Cruz Choque, D
EM: dcruz@mds.gov.bo
AF: National Climate Change Programme of Bolivia., 1328, Mercado St. Ballivian Building, Mezzanine. P.O. Box 5546, La Paz, Bolivia
AU: Gimenez-Sal, J C
EM: jcgsal@yahoo.com
AF: UBA, Paseo Colon 850, Buenos Aires, Argentina
AU: Moreno, A R
EM: ana_rosa_moreno@yahoo.com
AF: UNAM, Circuito Exterior 04510, Mexico, DF 04510, Mexico
AU: Nagy, G J
EM: gunab@glaucus.fcien.edu.uy
AF: Universidad de la Republica, Iguá 4225, Montevideo, Uruguay
AU: Nobre, C
EM: nobre@cptec.inpe.br
AF: CPTEC-INPE, Rod. Presidente Dutra, km 40 C. Postal 01, Cachoeira Paulista, SP 12630- 000, Brazil
AU: Villamizar, A
EM: alicia@usb.ve
AF: Universidad Simon Bolivar, Valle de Sartenejas, Baruta, Mir 89000, Venezuela
AB: Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors by: a) Decreasing plant and animal's species diversity, and changing ecosystems composition and biomes distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases; and g) Changing some human diseases distribution and provoking the emergence of new ones. The impact of climate change in Latin America's productive sectors is estimated to be of a 1.3 percent reduction of the region's GDP for a change of 2ºC in global temperature (without consider non market sectors and extremes events). Moreover, if the LA countries continue to follow the business as usual scenario, the wealth of natural resources that have supported economic and socio-cultural development in the region will be further degraded, reducing the regional potential for growth. Urgent measures must be taken to help bring environmental and social considerations from the margins to the decision-making and development strategies. This presentation is part of the revision done for the Latin American (LA) chapter under the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report.
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly