HR: 15:45h
AN: U33B-08    [Abstracts]
TI: Resilience to Drought Impacts of Climate Change in Mexico
AU: Brenkert, A L
EM: antoinette.brenkert@pnl.gov
AF: Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, MD 20740, United States
AU: * Ibarrarán, M E
EM: mariae.ibarraran@udlap.mx
AF: Univarsidad de las Américas, Puebla, Santa Catarina Martir S/N San Andrés Cholula , Puebla, 72820, Mexico
AU: Malone, E L
EM: e.malone@pnl.gov
AF: Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, MD 20740, United States
AB: Countries and states within countries have a different vulnerability and resilience to the effects of climate change. Although many aspects determine relative vulnerability and resilience, we look at socioeconomic and environmental information to assess the relative ranking of Mexican states to climate change, both establishing baselines in the year 2000 and then looking at projections once particular effects such as drought intensify throughout the country. We employ the modeling analysis framework of the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Model (VRIM) that shows considerable variation among states in comparative resilience to climate change and in the sources of that resilience. The VRIM uses 18 proxy indicators, grouped into 8 sectors, to assess on a quantitative basis the comparative potential vulnerability and resilience of countries to climate change. The model integrates detailed socioeconomic and environmental information such as land use, crop production, water availability, per capita GDP, inequality, and health status. A multiple-scale analysis was performed. Mexico as a country ranks in the second-highest quartile of the 160 countries ranked; for comparison purposes, Brazil, the Czech Republic, and Turkey are also in this quartile. Mexico and Mexican states were compared using national and state data; the comparisons show that resilience to climate change does not depend on location as much as on the combination of socio-economic and environmental aspects of a state. When drought was added as a stressor affecting most proxy variables, the overall and projected resilience changed only slightly; to gain insight into the impacts of drought, case studies are needed to complement model results.
DE: 1225 Global change from geodesy (1222, 1622, 1630, 1641, 1645, 4556)
DE: 1635 Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513)
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 6334 Regional planning (1880)
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly